CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-26T01:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-26T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36643/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 (for all frames) and STEREO COR2A (starting at 2025-01-26T02:23Z when a data gap ends). Source is a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, with liftoff starting around 2025-01-26T00:08Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. The curved filament occupied an oval-shaped area on the disk spanning S10-S30 and E38-E65 just prior to eruption. Filamentary material and post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2025-01-25T00:45Z. Post-eruptive arcades become visible in SDO AIA 171/193/131 around 2025-01-26T02:27Z. Possible arrival signature: Weak possible ICME signature characterized by a gradual increase in magnetic field components (B_t: from 5nT to 12nT), as well as an increase in density from 6p/cc to 16p/cc. There is no clear shock feature associated with this signature, as it is likely a minor CME flank impact. A similar, but more direct signature can be observed at Solar Orbiter, which was 20 degrees East of Earth at the time of impact, beginning at approx. 2025-01-29T13:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-29T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-30T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -22.00 hour(s)
Difference: -21.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-30T18:43Z
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